After two long days of negotiations, the German government finally presented the next phase of its unprecedented fiscal stimulus package in early June.

After two long days of negotiations, the German government finally presented the next phase of its unprecedented fiscal stimulus package in early June. Up until now, the German fiscal package was primarily focused on cushioning the German economy from the COVID-19 pandemic, and mitigating economic fallout throughout the country. With this new stimulus package now clearing the last remaining parliamentary hurdles, the new aim of the German government is to kickstart the economy.

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, the German government has agreed on unprecedented fiscal support and stimulus measures, amounting to over 30% of the country’s GDP. Within these measures, cash-out fiscal stimulus amounted to more than 5% of GDP. Furthermore, the fiscal stimulus package passed in June adds an additional 4% of GDP, making Germany’s fiscal reaction to the crisis quite fascinating. It is not only the size of the packages which are remarkable, but also the fact that the German government has made a complete reversal in its approach to fiscal policy. This is not only the case for Germany, but for Europe as a whole. Just a few short months ago, such commentary on German fiscal policy would have been unthinkable. However, with Germany going from austerity champion to big spender in a matter of a few short weeks, it goes to show the extent in which the German government will go to protect its economic from any fallout (political, social, economic, or otherwise) arising from the COVID-19 pandemic.

The €130 billion (US$146 billion) stimulus package includes over than 50 different economic and social measures. From our perspective, the most relevant measures include the following:

  1. A €50 billion (US$56 billion) fund to address climate change, innovation and digitization within the German economy. From this €50 billion (US$56 billion), the financial incentive to buy electric cars doubled from €3,000 to €6,000 (US$3,400 to US$6,800).
  2. The value-added tax (VAT) will be temporarily cut from 19% to 16%, from 1 July 2020 until 31 December 2020.
  3. The lower VAT rate for the hospitality sector will be temporarily reduced from 7% to 5% over the same period.
  4. Social security contributions will be capped at 40%, until 2021, to stabilize net income. Additional costs for social security will be covered by the German government.
  5. Additional tax loss carrybacks and faster depreciation rules for investments are intended to provide additional liquidity and investment incentives for companies.
  6. An additional liquidity and loan support program worth €25 billion (US$28 billion), for small and medium-sized companies from June 2020 to August 2020. Companies that saw sales drop by 60% or more year-on-year in April and May will be eligible to join the program.
  7. Approximately €10 billion (US$11 billion) will be earmarked to help municipalities struggling with lower tax receipts attain additional funding for housing and infrastructure expenditures.
  8. German households will receive an additional one-off child allowance of €300 (US$340) per child.

**For those interested in looking to invest and/or trade this macro theme, check out our article “A Fiscal Bang for the Deutschland – Trade Ideas” for our trade ideas.

© 2020 Economics Global Inc.


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