As the financial community focuses on the rally in oil, one by-product that has not received much attention but has performed just as well, is gasoline (UGA as a proxy).
Since January 2019, the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil prices have rallied 37% so far this year to $63 a barrel, with gasoline prices not too far behind, rallying over 29.79% year-to-date.
One reason for this rise in gasoline prices, has been the fact that global demand for crude and crude oil products has been much stronger than expected. Growth projections indicated sluggish demand for fossil fuels in 2019, but instead the global appetite for fossil fuel products has been very strong for the year, especially in emerging markets.
On the supply side, OPEC and its allies have cut oil production output, at the same time US sanctions have been holding back Iranian and Venezuelan oil exports into the international markets.
Lastly, against this global economic backdrop, as drivers are starting to get ready for the seasonal summer driving season, their need for gasoline will be provide a nice support for the commodity, and will only drive the price higher.
Going forward, we believe that this current environment will provide further room for gasoline to move higher until the end of the summer.
We recommend a tactical long position on gasoline (UGA) until then, to profit from this seasonal trend.