US Treasuries vs US Equities - Risk On

After peaking in late December 2018, the price ratio between 7-10 year US Treasuries (IEF as proxy)(numerator) and US Stocks (SPY as Proxy)(denominator) has fallen since then. This is backed up by the fact that the US Treasuries/US Stock ratio fell below its 10 day EMA (Green) and failed to move higher. 

We believe that this indicates that “Risk-On” sentiment is back in the financial markets, in the interim, as investors flock out of safe havens and into risky assets such as equities. It must be noted however that the overall macroeconomic backdrop is still quite challenging, as geopolitical risk in various regions continues, and global economic indicators trend downward.

Nonetheless, we believe there are some short-term opportunities in equities on a sectoral basis. Air Services, Recreational Vehicles, Southeast Regional and Pacific-focused banks, and Auto Part Manufacturers and Wholesalers present opportunities for investors in the near term.